Kentucky downs race picks

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Kentucky Downs Scouting Report for Sept. 12

Despite the rails being set at 0 feet and two to three paths of fresh grass on the inside, outside and off the pace runners once again dominated the Saturday Kentucky Downs card. There were no gate-to-wire winners and only two inside trip winners.

With his second consecutive riding triple, Tyler Gaffalione is now a clear second in the standings with seven scores. Joel Ro$ario, who was shut out on Saturday, leads with

On the trainer’s side, betting on Brendan Walsh was a profitable situation, as he scored three wins on Saturday at odds of , , and respectively. Rusty Arnold won two races, including the Turf Sprint (G3) with Gear Jockey, who set new track record, as did Turf Cup (G2) winner Imperador for Paulo Lobo. The trainer’s title is up for grabs entering closing day with Steve Asmussen holding a advantage over six others.

Bet Kentucky Downs LIVE Racing Here

1st Race – Pick Five starts here

This is a tough call. Several well-bred first time starters are asked to travel a mile first out of the box, so I opted for a horse with experience on top in #3 Daisy Bee. She got a practice run sprinting at Saratoga, and the pedigree suggests she should much prefer routing on the lawn.

A – 2, 3, 8, 10

B – 4, 7

C – 5

2nd Race – Pick Four starts here

#4 Star Command finished a respectable third in a Kentucky Downs maiden sprint, and she most recently held her own in a restricted stakes at Saratoga. The cutback should work in her favor here.

A – 4

B – 5

C – 2, 3, 7, 9, 11

3rd Race

#4 Hawk of War has won two of his last four starts, and he had excuses for the other two. In his most recent turf start at Ellis, he broke slowly, was five-wide on the turn and then rallied for second behind a solid winner. He should appreciate the cutback here.

A – 4, 6, 9

B – 7

4th Race – Pick Four starts here

#7 Lubna finished a deceivingly good third over a yielding course here last week, and horses who return on short rest at Kentucky Downs often perform well. She should offer some value in what appears to be a wide open race on paper.

A – 7, 8, 11

B – 1, 6

C – 9, 10

5th Race

Bet down to in her career debut at Colonial, #12 Street Tapper broke slowly but closed strongly to win going away. She has the look of a filly who should relish even more ground to work with.

A – 7, 12

B – 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13

6th Race – Pick Five starts here

Confidently ridden in his career debut, #8 Faithful Ruler flashed sharp speed. He had a clear lead at the top of the stretch, only to get run down late by an impressive winner while finishing clearly second best. He’s bred to go long, and Gaffalione is employed to get the job done here.

A – 1, 8, 13, 15

B – 2, 3, 9, 11, 14

C – 4, 5, 7

7th Race – Pick Four starts here

Sent off at odds of against nine rivals in her career debut at Monmouth, #2 Koala Princess absolutely crushed her competition. Ro$ario doesn’t ride a lot for this barn, but it looks like he has landed on a live one.

A – 2, 9, 12

B – 7, 8

C – 5, 11, 13

8th Race

#5 Navratilova has been hit or miss during her young career. Not sure what happened in the Lake George (G3) last out at Saratoga, and I’m banking she’ll return to the form she showed prior. She won the Tepin S. at Churchill over a mile and was very competitive in sprints prior to that. Today’s 6 1/2-furlong distance should suit her well.

A – 1, 5, 6, 11

B – 7, 8

C – 4, 9, 10, 13

9th Race

#7 Family Way overcame major trouble to win over nine furlongs in May at Churchill. Her form was darkened by her poor run in the Modesty (G3) at Arlington two starts back, but she finished a good third over 10 furlongs against the boys last out. With her A-game she should be a major factor today, and that ML was too good to pass up.

A – 5, 7

B – 4, 10, 11

C – 3, 6

10th Race

The winner of a $10K maiden claimer at Ellis last summer, #10 Yamato narrowly missed at Kentucky Downs in his follow-up start. The 4-year-old gelding has held his turf form very well since, and he enters this assignment off a solid fourth at Gulfstream in a race he was expected to need.

A – 10, 12

B – 3

C – 1, 2, 6, 8, 13

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Kentucky Downs Hotlist - September 12

Today’s Kentucky Downs Hot List races to watch
Sunday, Sept. 12,

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:     

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if or more.

1st race – (10) Mission Belle is working quickly toward her debut and could win at first asking in this spot. (8) Carioquinha is a Gun Runner firster who cannot be ignored. (2) Jaccaci is another firster with good credentials. (11) Twin Cause merits some attention here.  Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box:

3rd race – (6) Cheeky Chaps was an impressive debut winner and can make it two in a row here. (7) Lyrical Poet beat claimers last time but should still be a contender here. (11) Hurricane Hill should be closing quickly at the end. (4) Hawk of War could also be a stretch threat here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: Doubles: with

4th race – (1) Tetella exits a sharp maiden win for a good barn and is nicely positioned on the rail. (9) Madame Ready should be suited by the added distance. (8) Caroline’s Story will welcome the shorter distance here. (10) Touch of Class was a good second last time and fits nicely here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box:

7th race – (9) Mystic Eyes looked good winning her debut at Saratoga and may not look back here. (12) Lady Danae has a quick late kick and could be the one to fear. (2) Koala Princess won easily at Monmouth and deserves consideration here. (7) Take the Backroads perked up on turf and should not be ignored. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: Doubles: with

8th race – (6)  Tobys Heart comes in off a string of good efforts in stakes and deserves top billing. (7) Illegal Smile missed by a head last time and will be the main rival. (5) Navratilova might rebound in this spot. (1) New Boss could be tough to catch from the rail. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box:

Sours: https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/kentucky-downs-hotlist-september
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Kentucky Downs 2021 Big Ass Fan Derby! Picks \u0026 Predictions On Opening Day Sunday 9/5/2021!

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Downs race picks kentucky

Kentucky Downs Picks & Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for September Closing Day

Race 7: Turf, 6½F, Ainsworth S., $k, 2F

To kick off this tough final sequence on “Closing Day,” is a sprint that will have your head spinning. What we need to do is focus on formulating some strong opinions. In that vein, I particularly like the look of the 2-yr-old filly out of the barn of Todd Pletcher. Mystic Eyes #9 is well-bred out of Maclean’s Music and Cloudburst, which should help her running chances in this spot. As he did in a MSW80k up at Saratoga, John Velazquez gets aboard, and his riding of late has improved. He just seemed ice cold (not in a good way) up at NYRA signature summer track, and I would expect him to know what to do when the time comes—he is a HOF-er after all

I don’t know if I will put this runner on top because I also want to go way deeper when it comes to constructing this ticket. Setting a solid tone early can really make a difference. If you are looking for a few other alums from The SPA Meet, then be sure to include Tom Amoss’ Take the Backroads #7 and Wesley Ward’s Poppy Flower #8. The former was on the grass for the 1st time back on 4th August, and she did not disappoint out on the frontend. Amoss and owner Joel Politi are old hands at this spot, and I am sure this runner will be there near the end of this contest.

As for Ward’s entry, she is also one who likes to get to the lead, and enjoys holding it. That plan got away from her last time in the Bolton Landingk at Saratoga (she ended up 2nd), so it will be interesting to see how she handles the KD grass for the 1st time around. The downside is that Jose Ortiz, the regular rider for this daughter of Lea, contracted COVID and he will be unable to ride. Ward will recalibrate though, and I am sure he will have a capable replacement.

One last entry that deserves an “eye,” is Arnaud Delacour’s Koala Princess #2. She will be ridden by Joel Rosario, and he is inheriting a filly who was absolutely blazing in her debut at Monmouth back in August. That was a MSW55k that had a field of 10, so when it comes to price, she is an inviting 6/1. In the end, I think she will be my top selection, as her conditioner does not always get his due. What is for sure is that when you see the name of Peter Callahan in the ownership section on the form, that is a sign of good things to come. Here is a chance for these connections to see their charge take a step forward. I am on board …  

LP4 Leg 1: 2/7/8/9 (4-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $ Bankroll, Graduated Wager, WPS #2 ($W, $P, $S)

 

Race 8: Turf, 6½F, Nelson’s Green Brier Whiskey Music City S., $k, 3F

We find ourselves in the midst of another tough “Non-G,” but opinions are a great catalyst. In this spot, I have a pair of runners in mind, and I think that Brian Lynch’s Tobys Heart #6 and Wesley Ward’s Illegal Smile #7 are tops. Each of these fillies have their advanatges. Lynch’s router, who is shortening up, is well-versed when it comes to the company she has kept. With Joel Rosario aboard, she should get a solid trip at Kentucky Downs. Although Jack Milton is a relatively young sire, he does have War Front standing behind him. As for Ward’s barn member, she is logical after many a run in “Non-G” Co. Starting last year, she competed in some tough Woodbine races, before coming to Aqueduct, then Churchill, and finally last out at Saratoga. Only losing by a head to Star Devine in a k contest could have easily gone her way. I like the fact that she gets Irad Ortiz again, and he can notch a score riding this one. She will be hanging around late in the game … my kind of cloud-bearer.

LP4 Leg 2: 6/7 (2-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Box, 6/7

 

Race 9: Turf, 1 5/16ths, Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon S., $k, F&M 3+

In North America, we do not bear witness to many distance contests on the turf that include the numbers 1 5/16ths. It is unique, and begs the question … does it take a special runner to get this measurement? I am not so sure, but what I do know is that I want an entry from a solid barn, who has a history at KD. When it comes to those qualifications, I want Micheline #3 from Mike Stidham’s outfit in my corner. Her travel exploits are well-documented (Godolphin helps to combat her claustrophobia with a mobile stall), but what is even more important to note is that she is an incredible turfer, even though her recent record might not support that. What she needed was a couple of months off, and that is precisely what she got. Interestingly enough, the last time her conditioner sent her to KD (), she won by a neck in this very race … then named the Dueling Grounds Oaks k. The 4-yr-old filly’s jockey that day … Joel Rosario. Once he again he takes the mount, and I am sure she still has the ability to exhibit a nice turn-of-foot when it counts. Out of Bernardini, the opportunity is hers … and that is what makes her, in my mind, a “Single!”

LP4 Leg 3: 3 (Single)

Wagering Recommendation: $50 WP #3

 

Race Turf, 1½, St.ALLW54k, 3+

Finishing off this ticket, we find ourselves in the weeds (that is not a turf racing joke, btw); rather, this is quite a tough race because of the company level. Would you rather have a runner who is dropping down, or who is moving up the ladder? I am not so sure which direction is exactly right … with such an expansive field of 12, there is no way to really know precisely which side wins. What we do know is that we need to nab a “stayer” who can settle early, and then make a nice big run down the lane in the end. When it comes to tip top selection, I especially like the look of Conor Murphy’s Frankincense #5.

The 7-yr-old gelding is not done yet, and he has the opportunity to run in a much longer contest than he is used to. That might be just the ticket in a spot like this one because he is bred through and through to “go long.” When you have the likes of Frankel (GB) in your blood, then there is a chance he can challenge this test. The best news is that veteran rider James Graham hops aboard, and he can make this happen, if anyone can. As for picks to close out this LP4 ticket, I am bullish on the “All” option. Talk sense … right?

LP4 Leg 4: (All)

Total Ticket Cost LP4/ $

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 5 w , w ,

The Kentucky Downs 6-day Meet reaches its apex Closing Day! Enjoy the finale of some fabulous turf racing …

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Picks for Race 8 at Kentucky Downs

Big Race Showdown: Pair of Million-Dollar Races at Kentucky Downs

For the fifth year in a row, America’s Best Racing is challenging some of the brightest minds in horse betting to come up with their top three picks for key races every weekend leading up to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The handicappers face off in what we like to call the “Big Race Showdown.”

The players’ picks will be posted here and a running bankroll will be kept to track their success all year long. Bankrolls will be tabulated on the basis of $2 exacta and $2 trifecta box bets of each player’s top three selections. We will also be keeping track of which player correctly selects the most winners. 

Your players for the Breeders' Cup season are Ashley Mailloux (Project Lead, 1/ST Racing), Roberto Rodriguez (El Potro Roberto, DRF en Espanol), Nicolle Neulist (Chartcaller at Hawthorne Race Track and Arlington Park and a Freelance Writer), Louis Rabaut (Handicapper and Host, Horse Racing Happy Hour), Mike Somich (The Magic Mike Show, Somo Bombs Handicapper – The Racing Dudes), John Piassek (Handicapper and Writer, America’s Best Racing), Darwin Vizcaya (Handicapper and Host, La Trifecta from America’s Best Racing), Brian Zipse (Senior Writer for Horse Racing Nation and Host of HorseCenter), Naomi Tukker (Maryland Jockey Club Racing Analyst), Spencer Luginbuhl (Redboard Rewind Podcast from In the Money Media, The Daily Gallop), Edison Hatter (In the Money Media Analyst, Meadowlands On-Air Host), and Mike Gandolfo (Handicapper and Host, Horse Racing Happy Hour).

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This week's races are both Saturday at Kentucky Downs: the $1 million FanDuel Turf Sprint, a qualifying race for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint; and the $1 million Calumet Turf Cup, which offers an expenses-paid berth in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf to the winner. The Calumet Turf Cup and the FanDuel Turf Sprint will be shown live on NBC during a one-hour show beginning at 5 p.m. ET. Post times are p.m. ET for the Turf Sprint and p.m. ET for the Turf Cup.


Sours: https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/big-race-showdown-pair-million-dollar-races-kentucky-downs

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Kentucky Downs Tip Sheet - September 5

Featured News

September 4,

KENTUCKY DOWNS TIPS - SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 05,

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 52% of the time at this track.

 RACE #1   $,MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

8

Warbird

J Rosario

PLACE

9

Marvelousmoondance

R Bejarano

SHOW

10

Urban Myth

J Graham

WILD CARD

7

Incitatus

C Landeros

ALTERNATE 1

5

My Favorite Uncle

D Cannon

ALTERNATE 2

3

Freddy Flintshire

T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 8/9/10 BOX, 7/9/10 BOX

RACE #2   $,MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

BEST BET:  #14 GILLIAN ELIZABETH

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

14

Gillian Elizabeth

C J Hernandez

PLACE

2

Gambles Orb

J Talamo

SHOW

3

Towser

B J Hernandez Jr.

WILD CARD

5/2

12

Ladybelucky

A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1

1

Justastar

J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 2

16

Brash

J Padron-Barcenas

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/3/14 BOX, 2/3/12 BOX

RACE #3   $45,STARTER ALLOWANCE
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

7

Exulting

J Rosario

PLACE

7/2

1

Quality Step

M Pedroza

SHOW

3

Jammers Justice

C Landeros

WILD CARD

5

Cantbetemall

R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1

13

High Noon Rider

J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 2

15

Subdued

E Morales

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #4   $,MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

BEST BET:  #6 PAMMYS READY

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

7/2

6

Pammys Ready

J Rosario

PLACE

7

Ill Figure It Out

J Talamo

SHOW

10

Gingrich

J Graham

WILD CARD

2

City At Night

T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1

4

Never Say Know

R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 2

3

Formal Act

M Mena

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX

RACE #5   $,ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

BEST BET:  #12 SOUPER DORMY

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

7/2

12

Souper Dormy

A Beschizza

PLACE

14

Island Commish

J R Leparoux

SHOW

11

Mr. Hustle

T Gaffalione

WILD CARD

8

Americanus

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1

6

Natural Power

M Mena

ALTERNATE 2

13

Tohui

J Padron-Barcenas

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 11/12/14 BOX, 8/11/14 BOX

RACE #6   $,MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

6

Sensei Lawrence

B J Hernandez Jr.

PLACE

2

Russian Tank

V Severino

SHOW

1

Knowhowiknow

A Beschizza

WILD CARD

8/5

8

Vivar

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1

9

Scattershack

J Talamo

ALTERNATE 2

5

Bon Deux

D Cannon

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

RACE #7   $,ALLOWANCE
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

14

Miners Queen

J R Leparoux

PLACE

11

Two Sixtyone

M Murrill

SHOW

13

Amalfi Princess

T Gaffalione

WILD CARD

4

Lubna

A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1

2

Street of Dreams

C Landeros

ALTERNATE 2

1

Miss Marley

J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 11/13/14 BOX, 4/11/13 BOX

RACE #8   $,MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

7/2

3

Thedevilyousay

B J Hernandez Jr.

PLACE

6

Delightof the Nile

M Murrill

SHOW

14

Stormy Stella

T Gaffalione

WILD CARD

7

Mrs. Nushi

A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1

4

Paris Paramour

J Graham

ALTERNATE 2

1

Joezine

A Gomez

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 3/6/14 BOX, 6/7/14 BOX

RACE #9   $,STAKES
 1 5/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $, DUELING GROUNDS OAKS

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

9/2

3

Inthewinnerscircle

J R Leparoux

PLACE

7

Oliviaofthedesert

B J Hernandez Jr.

SHOW

6

Adventuring

J Rosario

WILD CARD

8

Core Values

R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1

9

Earth Strike

D Carroll

ALTERNATE 2

4

Line Dancing

T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 3,6,7/3,6,7,8

* TRIFECTA: 3,6,7/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8,9

COMMENTS: INTHEWINNERSCIRCLE ran the top, last race speed figure and might be better in the third start off the bench. OLIVIAOFTHEDESERT has some of the best late pace ability, should be handy. ADVENTURING showed much improvement in her last, a bullet work suggests the upward trend continues. CORE VALUES has won three in a row.

RACE #10   $,STAKES
 1 5/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $, BIG ASS FANS DUELING GROUNDS DERBY

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

4

Modern Science

C Landeros

PLACE

3

Yes This Time

T Gaffalione

SHOW

5/2

12

Du Jour

J Rosario

WILD CARD

8

Cellist

J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 1

6

Red Hornet

A Achard

ALTERNATE 2

1

Accredit

M Garcia

* EXACTA: 3,4,8,12 Box

* TRIFECTA: 3,4,12/3,4,8,12/3,4,6,8,12

COMMENTS: MODERN SCIENCE has been no more than 1 1/4 lengths from winning five in a row. YES THIS TIME won five straight before being pinched at the jump in his last. DU JUOR ran the best, last race speed figure and moves down in class. CELLIST is working well for this spot.

RACE #11   $,MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: PM ET

PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY

WIN

14

Upandcomingstar

J Rosario

PLACE

4

Nota Bene

J R Leparoux

SHOW

13

Halaga

B J Hernandez Jr.

WILD CARD

3

Front Street

B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1

12

Cruz Bay

J Rosario

ALTERNATE 2

8

Vintage Style

J Rocco Jr.

* EXACTA: BOX, BOX, BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/13/14 BOX, 3/4/13 BOX

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Sours: https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/kentucky-downs-tip-sheet-september-5


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